UK: The premature declaration of political winners and losers in Libya

The Economist

Libya
Premature evaluations

NO SOONER had rebel forces advanced on Tripoli than the political scorekeeping began in Washington. Was this a victory for Barack Obama, to go along with the fall of other Arab dictators and the killing of Osama bin Laden? Will Mitt Romney give Mr Obama any credit for his policy, or will he continue to criticise the president but cheer the intervention? What of Michele Bachmann's opposition to America's involvement? Did John McCain and Lindsey Graham shortchange America in their declaration of victory? The “thank America last” crowd, Steve Benen calls it. I like that.

But all of this talk of winners and losers seems ridiculously premature, and embarrassingly insular, to your blogger (apologies to my colleague). While recent events appear to augur a promising future for Libya, it is way too soon to tell. "At such moments, any temptations toward euphoria have to be restrained by a recognition that future developments are unpredictable and potentially unpleasant," says a very reasonable Jeff Weintraub. "Overthrowing oppressive and tyrannical regimes is often hard, but successfully reconstructing the societies that they've damaged, distorted, and poisoned by their rule is usually even harder." And yet we get headlines like this from Steve Clemons: "Huge Win for Libyans, A Win for Obama, Challenges Next". Challenges next? By that logic, Iraq was a win for George Bush, and we'll consider those pesky challenges that followed separately. In reality, though, you cannot separate the aftermath from the overthrow. They are a result of the same policy, put in place to deal with a situation that in this case is not yet settled.

Still, Mr Weintraub says "a certain degree of satisfaction is appropriate". And, of course, this is true. Muammar Qaddafi was a vile dictator unseated by a rebel movement fueled by popular discontent. Well done. But as Stephen Walt counsels, let's avoid a "Mission Accomplished" moment. "The leaders I’ve talked to do not have a clear understanding how this will all play out," says a "senior American military officer" quoted in the New York Times. Neither do us pundits, so perhaps we can postpone the declarations of political victories in America for the time being.

http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2011/08/libya