UK: A Paul victory

The Guardian

Ron Paul is a winner with second place in New Hampshire

Mitt Romney's emphatic win is less significant than Ron Paul's result. And what it signifies is a Republican party fragmenting
By Ana Marie Cox

Though Mitt Romney made history with the first non-incumbent's consecutive Iowa-New Hampshire victories in GOP history, Ron Paul's second-place finish in the New Hampshire primary is by far more significant when it comes to the future of the Republican party.

Paul is a candidate completely unlike any other in this field, and completely unlike any successful Republican candidate in recent memory. (He does remind me a little of Howard Dean, persona-wise.) His success may not be the triumph of substance over style, but it sure isn't a win for style.

When pundits or establishment Republicans dismiss Paul as a force, especially tonight, it is usually by noting that his supporters are not "real" Republicans. Perhaps that's a good thing. Yes, according to exit polls, most of Paul's support came from independents and those voting in a GOP primary for the first time, but Paul also got 20% of voters who have participated in Republican primaries before – not a lot, but second only to Romney. This is the kind of demographic combination that suggests growth.

And there's this weird result: for all that support from liberals and independents, Paul also won with those voters who said the quality that mattered the most to them was "Is a true conservative".

Something is wrong with this picture – unless you stop taking it for granted that the Republican party represents any coherent version of conservative ideology. That seems to be what voters are concluding.

There's another exit poll result that points to the crumbling foundation of the GOP: among voters who said a president should "compromise", Romney won. Among those who said the president should "stick to principles", he also won.

The night really had no other winners, except for the media (who got to go to bed early). Jon Huntsman could not eke out a victory over Paul, despite a message with independent appeal and New Hampshire residency for the past year. His trudge toward South Carolina is a weak-kneed consolation lap, perhaps intended to remind people that he can compete (kinda!) in more than one state – in case, you know, he has a chance to run again.

Rick Santorum didn't need to do well, and didn't, though he will need to consolidate not-Romney support in the southern states ahead if he really wants to be the (vice-)presidential nominee.

Gingrich continues on completely out of spite, thank God. He is the grim anti-hero of the GOP, a cross between Richard Nixon and Batman.

Rick Perry, on the other hand, reminds me of the guy at the party with a lampshade on his head, unaware that the event has ended. He is not quite as entertaining.

I would like to take this moment to remind people that there is still voting to come.

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/ana-marie-cox-blog/2012/jan/11/ron-paul-is-a-winner-with-second-place