Australia: Syrian problem

The Sydney Morning Herald

Washington sees pros and cons in Syria turmoil
By Mark Landler

WASHINGTON: There are growing fears in Washington that the deepening chaos in Syria could dash any remaining hopes for a Middle East peace deal.

It could also alter the US rivalry with Iran for influence in the region, and pose challenges to America's great ally Israel.

Obama administration officials are trying to gauge the seriousness of the Syrian uprising, while the new US ambassador in Damascus, Robert Ford, has been quietly reaching out to the Syrian President, Bashar al-Assad, urging him to stop his security forces firing on the people.
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In an apparent effort to quell the unrest, Assad released at least 260 prisoners from a Damascus military prison on Saturday.

US officials say they are split between fears that the country's problems could destabilise neighbouring states such as Lebanon and Israel, and the hope that it could seriously weaken one of Iran's key allies.

For years, the US has tried unsuccessfully to coax Syria into negotiating a peace deal with Israel and to moving away from Iran. Now the unrest in Syria - and in Jordan, which has a peace treaty with Israel - could leave Israel further isolated.

''You can't have comprehensive peace in the Middle East without Syria,'' a White House official said. ''It's definitely in our interest to pursue an agreement, but you can't do [that] with a government that has no credibility with its population.''

Some analysts see a positive effect of the unrest: it could deprive Iran of an ally in extending its influence over Lebanon and the Palestinians in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.

Iran appears to have benefited from the upheaval in other parts of the region, notably Bahrain, and from the resulting chill between the US and Saudi Arabia.

''There's much more upside than downside for the US, compared to other countries in the region,'' said Martin Indyk, the vice-president of foreign policy at the Brookings Institution. ''We have an interest in counterbalancing the advantages Iran has gained in the rest of the region. That makes Syria an unusual case where there is a confluence of our values and interests.''

The New York Times

http://www.smh.com.au/world/washington-sees-pros-and-cons-in-syria-turmoil-20110327-1cbuy.html