UK: The first republican debate

The Economist

The 2012 Republican primary
And they're off...

RON PAUL made a pretty young couple’s night when he walked past their sidewalk table. Grandees drank and chuckled at a reception along the bank of the Reedy River, in Greenville’s slightly-too-scrubbed downtown. Tea Partiers and Fair Taxers lined the streets. And me? I watched last night's Republican debate from the Media Filing Centre, just off the Spin Room, next to an oozing pile of swiftly rotting roast beef sandwiches. I narrowly avoided being trampled to death by the scrum that formed when Reince Preibus walked into the room (which was only slightly less enthusiastic than the scrum that formed when chocolate-chip cookies entered the room). How can you not love campaign reporting?

The election may be 18 months away (and South Carolina’s first-in-the-South poll ten months away) but it’s never too early for a debate. Right? Is it? Unless, of course, you’re Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin, Mike Huckabee, Newt Gingrich, Mitch Daniels, Donald Trump, Michele Bachmann or Jon Huntsman, none of whom were in South Carolina last night. Taking the stage were Herman Cain, Rick Santorum, Tim Pawlenty, Ron Paul and Gary Johnson, who combined drew less than 8% in a poll taken last month. Small wonder that before the first commercial break, Bret Baier, who hosted the debate for FOX News, excitedly teased, "Coming up: we’ll ask these candidates about other candidates who aren’t here!"

Messrs Santorum, Pawlenty and Paul already have national profiles, but they remain firmly second-tier candidates; Messrs Cain and Johnson were trying to get into the second tier. Before the debate the buzz was that Mr Cain’s performance would really impress people, that his candidacy would get the biggest bump. And in fact his Intrade numbers saw the biggest jump, proportionally, of any of the five candidates: from .3% chance of victory to 2%. Need one point out that it will take more? He is the former CEO of a chain of pizza restaurants, he has never held elected office, and he is a gifted deliverer of platitudes, but there is very little there there.

The crowd’s favourite, of course, was Ron Paul, who seems to be making a great career out of winning adoring crowds without winning elections. It was heartening to hear the loud cheers that greeted his firm opposition to torture (less heartening: three of the five candidates on stage—Messers Cain, Santorum and Pawlenty—raised their hands when asked if they would support waterboarding). And Mr Paul is not alone on the libertarian side this year: Mr Johnson holds similar positions but boasts two terms of executive experience as the former governor of New Mexico. Their emphasis differs: Mr Paul’s is on fiscal policy, Mr Johnson’s is on ending the drug war. Unfortunately, Mr Johnson demonstrated a rare gift for alienating a crowd of southern Republicans: his support for abortion rights until the viability of the fetus and for giving illegal immigrants work visas garnered silence and, I think, a few boos from the crowd. Despite their similar views, I expect Mr Johnson to fade. His genial, gentle demeanor and his habit of listening to his interlocutors is no match, when it comes to riling up crowds, for Mr Paul’s coiled dogmatism.

I’m not sure there was a clear winner last night. Tim Pawlenty, mentioned in 2008 as a potential VP candidate for John McCain, had the most to lose, but he acquitted himself well enough. Sure, he’s preternaturally devoid of charisma; when he talks his hands look like they are controlled by a different brain than the rest of his body; and his apologies for at one time supporting cap and trade are growing so abject so quickly that I suspect it’s only a matter of time before he actually flagellates himself on stage, but he is dogged and clever—he was the first to bring up the NLRB’s complaint against Boeing, which was red meat to South Carolina Republicans.

But there is a danger for Republicans bubbling just beneath the surface. Anger and disdain does not win elections, especially against a popular incumbent (cf John Kerry, Walter Mondale). Bashing the president, for which Messers Pawlenty and Santorum, showed particular fondness, will only get you so far. At some point, candidates will have to give voters a reason to support them, not just reasons to oppose Barack Obama.


http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2011/05/2012_republican_primary