The Economist
The Republican nomination
In the hunt
OSTENSIBLY, today’s lunch was for Henry Kissinger, to discuss the ancient diplomat’s new book, “On China”. But what really drew a power crowd ranging from Tina Brown and Peggy Noonan to Mort Zuckerman and Lloyd Blankfein, the boss of Goldman Sachs, to the Thomson Reuters HQ in Times Square was Jon Huntsman, a former governor of Utah and, until recently, America’s ambassador to China. Mr Huntsman did not disappoint. Flanked by Mr Kissinger and another veteran intellectual, Harry Evans, with a facial glow and shiny hair that presidential candidates share uniquely with news anchors, he said that he intended, in one week, to announce his candidacy to be president.
Judging by his comments on China, he is just the sort of candidate this presidential race needs. Intelligent and pragmatic, he was reassuring about China in a way that Mr Kissinger rarely is, even if they had little disagreement on the actual facts of the matter. Mr Huntsman highlighted the unprecedented leadership change that China is about to undergo, with by his count around 70% of the top 200 jobs in the Chinese government likely to change hands over the next couple of years. He thinks those currently in charge in China are increasingly preoccupied with the threat of domestic unrest rather than engaging in aggression abroad. The fact that the Chinese government now spends more on domestic security than on its military “tells you who they most fear”.
Nonetheless, the “biggest hole” in current relations between China and America is that their senior military leadership seldom meet; something he would clearly wish to change. He also wants China and America to agree to “rules of the road” for cyber spying, to define what is acceptable and what is not—a tacit admission that both sides engage in this sort of digital espionage.
Asked how his experience in China might help him get elected, or merely distinguish him from the rest of the Republican field, none of whom have ever seen China from their backyard, he neatly dodged the question. Instead he argued that sorting out America’s economy would most help ensure a healthy relationship with China, which is currently questioning America’s economic strength, and thus its strength more broadly. What sort of economic agenda he will set out remains to be seen, though as a former trade negotiator and an effective state governor there are grounds to hope that his ideas will be sensible, maybe not a million miles from those of Mitt Romney.
Mr Romney, who has been riding surprisingly high in recent polls, will not welcome the competition from another sensible besuited Mormon man, especially given a republican base that is struggling to decide which it hates most—being a Mormon or being sensible. One topic of postprandial conversation was whether Mr Huntsman is really in it to win; perhaps he is entering the race to put down a marker for next time, or maybe to secure the position of secretary of state should a Republican win. But why go through all the pain of a campaign if not to try to win? And being so knowledgeable and reassuring on China is certainly a plus, pointed out one veteran advisor to Republican presidents, given that Americans are increasingly worried about China. His family is also a point of (probably positive) difference, with an adopted Chinese daughter and a son who, with remarkably helpful timing, has just joined the navy.
But perhaps Mr Huntsman’s decision to take on Mr Romney is also a reflection of an often ignored, yet profound, divide within Mormonism itself, between the true believers and the secularists. As one prominent political journalist noted at the lunch, Mr Romney is the sort of Mormon who is proud to have chosen his faith, whereas Mr Huntsman gives every impression of it having been inflicted upon him. Mr Romney may be able to abandon the health-care reforms he introduced whilst governor of Massachusetts, but he would never give up his Mormonism. Mr Huntsman shows signs of trying to distance himself from the religion, which is regarded as a cult by many Christian members of the Republican base, speaking of his “Mormon heritage” in a way that suggests it does not play much of a part in his life today, and would play an even smaller part if that would help to win him the White House.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2011/06/republican-nomination-1
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