PJ: Governor Rick Perry once declared that Texas might secede from the union. He's a populist, gun-toting, pro-life, stimulus hating politician who paints himself as a fiscal conservative. He was very vocal about his disgust of Obama's stimulus funding even though he took the money to balance his state's budget (http://www.theatlanticwire.com/politics/2011/01/stimulus-hating-gov-rick-perry-used-stimulus-to-balance-texas-budget/21369/) and by doing so now claims victory in righting his state's fiscal imbalance (careful not to credit federal government help). Yep, he's got everything that the Tea Party is searching for including that all important dose of hypocrisy.
The Guardian
Beware Rick Perry, the Republican party's real deal
Texas governor Rick Perry can unite the warring factions of the Republican party – and prove a formidable foe for Obama
By Richard Adams
Rick Perry will enter the Republican presidential contest and he will win the party's nomination. A bold prediction? Not really, not when you consider the noises coming out of Texas and the ungainly sight of the other candidates.
When he does, Democrats will probably make the mistake of thinking that hanging a "George W Bush 2" label around the Texas governor's neck will sink him. Maybe it won't help Perry win the presidency in 2012 but it's hardly a bar to winning the Republican nomination.
The Wall Street Journal felt confident enough to blog that a "normally reliable Republican source reports that Mr Perry has surveyed the field and decided to get in the race later this summer". That's the latest in a chorus of winks, nods, nudges and arched eyebrows from the Lone Star state that Perry is indeed running – even if the official response is "He hasn't made up his mind."
This is significant for two reasons. One is that Perry will win the Republican nomination, barring a "live boy or dead girl" scenario. The other is that it spares the Republican party the long national nightmare of a Sarah Palin candidacy.
On the first point, none of the other candidates in the GOP race have the stature or experience of Perry. He has been governor of Texas since 2000, is an Air Force veteran, has what could be described as Warren Beatty good-looks, and ticks every box on the conservative Republican wishlist, all the way from abortion to something beginning with Z.
Having Texas as a political base gives him some huge advantages. One is the fundraising potential, gifting Perry a goldmine that the likes of Mitt Romney or Michele Bachmann can't enter. The other is the cluster of political support that Perry has built up, giving him a deep pool of staff, backers and volunteers. And Texas boasts 149 delegates to the Republican convention, the most of any state other than California. (New Hampshire, in contrast, has just 20.)
Perry's record as governor of Texas might not delight Democrats but he's a hero in Republican circles for his rock-ribbed conservatism and gun-toting populism. That makes him the only candidate able to span the Tea Party and more mainstream Republican wings of the party, on both social and economic issues. And the private sector job creation that Texas can boast under Perry's leadership gives him an enviable record that his primary rivals (and Obama) will find difficult to rebut.
Added to all that is the fact that Perry has won three gubernatorial elections after bitterly contested Republican primaries in Texas. So he knows how to win an intra-party struggle in a big state – something that can't be said for the likes of Romney. His demolition of US Senator Kay Bailey Hutchison in the 2010 Republican primary was a case in point, a brilliant if bare-knuckle campaign.
Perry also has something that the other Republican candidates – with the exception of Palin – lack: an easy rapport with regular voters. Perry easily wins the "most like to have a beer with" test.
On top of all that, Perry will be the only credible Southern candidate in a set of Republican primaries where the rewards are heavily tilted towards the South. While all the attention is now on Iowa and New Hampshire, the real test comes in South Carolina, a bellwether of the solid Republican states. And it's hard to imagine Perry getting beaten there by a Romney or a Huntsman.
As for Palin, while she has played cat-and-mouse with the media, she has also said repeatedly that she won't run if there's a candidate she deems to be acceptable. Perry is likely to fit that bill. A Perry campaign probably means no Palin campaign – a thought that may subtract from the amusement of the nation but is a godsend for the Republican party.
Winning the Republican nomination is one thing, winning the general election is another entirely. From what I read and hear, Democrats and the Washington-based media seem to think that America isn't ready for another Texas governor as president so soon after George Bush. I wouldn't be so sure. For one thing, Perry has never been close to the Bush cadre – in the 2010 Texas primary George HW Bush and Dick Cheney endorsed Perry's opponent. For another, I doubt regular voters care that much.
Certainly, if the Obama campaign thinks that all it has to do to defeat Perry is label him as "Bush Lite" or similar, then it needs to have a Plan B ready if and when that fails to work.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/richard-adams-blog/2011/jun/24/rick-perry-republican-nomination-2012
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