The Guardian
Gingrich makes his last stand ahead of Mississippi and Alabama primaries
Gingrich faces a must-win situation as he hangs on in the Republican race, and polls show he has a chance in the south
By Ewen MacAskill
Former House speaker Newt Gingrich could bounce back next week with wins in Mississippi and Alabama, according to polls published on Friday, which is bad news for his rival for the Republican presidential nomination, Rick Santorum.
Since winning South Carolina in January, Gingrich had been fading from the race. But he managed a win in his home state Georgia this week and is hopeful of adding to his tally next Tuesday.
His spokesman, RC Hammond, said this week that Mississippi and Alabama were must-win states for Gingrich to remain viable.
If Gingrich was to lose Mississippi and Alabama, he would most likely drop out, making it a two-horse race between Romney and Santorum. With Gingrich out, Santorum's chances against Romney would improve, with Santorum and Gingrich no longer splitting the conservative vote.
A poll from the American Research Group put Gingrich at 35% in Mississippi, Romney at 31%, Santorum 20% and Ron Paul 7%. A Rasmussen poll in Alabama also put Gingrich ahead, but only by a narrow margin, at 30% to Santorum's 29%, 28% for Romney and 7% for Paul.
A Rasmussen poll in Mississippi, in contrast with the American Research Group, has Romney ahead, at 35%, with Santorum and Gingrich tied at 27%.
Romney's supporters in Mississippi hope he can squeeze through if Santorum and Gingrich split the rightwing vote.
Henry Barbour, Mississippi representative to the Republican National Committee, originally supported Texas governor Rick Perry and is now backing Romney.
Barbour, who was campaign manager for his uncle, former Mississippi governor Haley Barbour, said: "Romney is the underdog here but I think we have a legitimate chance of producing an upset. Romney is more organised than Gingrich or Santorum. His Super Pac has had ads up in Jackson for three to four weeks."
Barbour, chairman of the Romney campaign in Yazoo, predicted a win for Santorum, Romney in second place and Gingrich third. "I think Santorum is favourite. People like Gingrich but most people think he is toast and can't win so they have moved on."
Barbour detected a drumbeat in the state that the race is over and it was time to get behind the inevitable nominee, Romney.
Brad Coker, head of Mason-Dixon polling, anticipated victories for Gingrich.
"I think Gingrich goes into Alabama and Mississippi as favourite. I think Alabama will be like Georgia except Gingrich's percentage will be down a bit and Santorum's will be up a bit."
He predicted Gingrich would keep going if he wins the two states, hoping that if Romney falls short of the delegates he needs to win the nomination, Gingrich's tally of delegates could put him in a strong bargaining position.
Romney has done best so far in big towns and cities and their suburbs, and Santorum in rural areas. In Mississippi, as Barbour pointed out, the only population centre over 50,000 is Jackson. Mississippi is one of the poorest states in America and Romney is concentrating his campaign in Republican strongholds that are populated and better off: Jackson, DeSoto county in the north, and the Gulf Coast.
Merle Black, professor of politics at Emory University, Atlanta, and one of the leading academics on the south, described Mississippi and Alabama as "Gingrich's second last stand … If he can't take them, that totally undermines the rationale of his candidacy. There is no reason to think he could do any better anywhere else."
Black refrained from making any predictions, believing the result is too close to call.
Santorum is expected to win Kansas on Saturday and that could give him momentum going into Mississippi and Alabama on Tuesday. He could complete the week with a fourth win next Saturday in Missouri, having easily won the state in a test-run in February. With four wins behind him, he and Romney would face another big showdown in Illinois later this month.
Santorum campaigned in Kansas on Friday but Romney hasd no visits scheduled, an admission that he stands little chance in the state. Gingrich also recognised the strength of Santorum's appeal in midwest states by cancelling a planned campaign event in Kansas and concentrating instead on Mississippi and Alabama.
Bob Beatty, professor of politics at Washburn University in Topeka, Kansas, expected Santorum to win the state, given that Mike Huckabee won it easily in the 2008 Republican race.
"Santorum is the closest thing in 2012 to Mike Huckabee … The midwest is solid Santorum. The appeal of his campaign is he is the authentic conservative."
Santorum's social conservative views, in particular his staunch opposition to abortion, resonates in Kansas, especially Wichita, which has one of the biggest concentrations of Republicans in the state. It was in Wichita that abortion doctor George Tiller was murdered in 2009.
As well as Kansas, there is voting on Saturday in Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands. On Tuesday, there are votes in Hawaii and American Samoa.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/mar/09/newt-gingrich-last-stand-mississippi-alabama
No comments:
Post a Comment