The Guardian
Obama rides wave of economic recovery as the Republicans continue to feud
The Democrats are increasingly optimistic that the president will win a second term, as Mitt Romney faces test of Super Tuesday
By Paul Harris
As Republicans head to the polls this Tuesday for a potentially decisive round of voting in their party's topsy-turvy nomination race, many Democrats are increasingly optimistic that President Barack Obama will secure a second term.
Even if "Super Tuesday" delivers a long sought-after victory for frontrunner Mitt Romney, some observers believe the drawn-out battle for his party's nomination has seen the Republican party drift so far to the right that it has catastrophically damaged its election chances.
At the same time, the US economy has started gearing up into a full recovery, shaving down once spiralling jobless numbers, sending stocks soaring and giving consumers a much-needed boost of confidence. "In Washington Democrats are feeling better and better every day about the election in November," said Larry Haas, a political commentator and former aide in the Clinton White House.
Indeed, a flurry of commentary has appeared in recent days, from figures on both left and right, speculating about what an Obama second term might look like in terms of policy. The current contrast between the two parties' fortunes was amply illustrated last week, when Romney managed to eke out a narrow win in his own home state of Michigan against a conservative challenge from former senator Rick Santorum.
Romney, who gave an embarrassing speech to a virtually empty stadium in Detroit, was hobbled by his opposition to a bailout that helped save Michigan's car industry. Meanwhile, Obama was speaking to a raucous, cheering crowd of car workers at a union convention. "I placed my bet on the American worker!" Obama said, claiming the political spoils from a bailout that some estimate saved more than a million jobs.
The last poll to measure who would win Michigan in a match-up between Romney and Obama left little doubt who is ahead. It put Obama up by a whopping 18 points, crushing Michigan-born Romney by 51% to 33% in a state that some saw as a potential 2012 battleground. Other polling news from swing states is also grim. In the key state of Pennsylvania, Obama leads Romney by 11 points. In Virginia, Obama is up by six points against Romney. Such polling probably reflects how many independent voters – the key middle-ground of presidential politics – have been put off by the increasingly bitter Republican race. Romney has been unable to finish off determined challenges from Santorum, former House speaker Newt Gingrich and Texan congressman Ron Paul. The race has become highly negative and obsessed with social issues such as contraception. To many experts all the candidates now appear damaged goods as their rivals hammer away at their weaknesses and past scandals. "So far the Republican primary is like watching The Exorcist. Each candidate is trying but failing to get rid of their demons," said Professor Matthew Hale, a political scientist at Seton Hall University.
It is possible that Romney might secure a vital win on Super Tuesday, when ten different states vote, but it is not guaranteed. If Santorum wins the key fight of Ohio and performs as strongly as expected in conservative strongholds such as Georgia, Oklahoma and Tennessee, then already pervasive doubts over Romney's candidacy will grow.
There is a strong underground whispering campaign among many senior Republican figures to try to persuade an outside candidate to act as a "white knight" to try to save the party. None has yet come forward, but names such as former Florida governor Jeb Bush, New Jersey governor Chris Christie and Indiana governor Mitch Daniels are those most frequently whirring through the Washington rumour mill. But even if Romney does become the party's nominee, there are grave doubts as to what sort of figure he will be.
The relentless attacks of his party rivals and a series of gaffes on the campaign trail have reinforced an image of a wealthy elitist with little sense of how ordinary Americans live their lives. That is not an image likely to be an easy sell to an electorate still scarred from the recession, but one that is also now embracing an economic recovery. Figures last week showed that US jobless numbers had fallen to levels not seen in almost four years. At the same time the US stock exchange has roared back, topping the 13,000 level. US firms are hiring workers and sitting on vast cash reserves.
"Six months ago, a lot of Democrats were really worried. Most Democrats thought Obama would lose," said Haas. Now they are methodically building a powerful election machine to tout the recovering economy and attack the Republicans. Obama has visited more than 100 fundraising events for his re-election effort, bringing in a staggering $140m for his campaign war chest.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2012/mar/03/obama-optimism-second-term
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