PJ: Republicans modeled this primary season after the successful 2008 democratic primary between Clinton and Obama. Sadly for the GOP, the length of the primary is the only similarity between then and now. In the 2008 democratic primary, voters wrestled with a choice between two candidates that both inspired them. In today's republican primary, polls show that none of the candidates on the GOP ticket have that kind of draw for their party faithfuls. In fact, quite the opposite seems to be true. The longer the primary and the more exposed these candidates become the less the voters like them. Gone are the days when the candidates tried to concentrate on the economic issues that Americans are the most concerned...and here are the days that are focusing on social and religious issues like the fight against contraception for women, getting rid of pornography and reversing the nation's long standing separation of church and state. It's no wonder that Sarah Palin thinks that she still has a chance at the nomination at a brokered convention--especially when her supporters have been actively trying to stack the deck in her favour.
The Economist
The Republican nomination
Predictable and compelling
by R.M.
ROSS DOUTHAT is growing impatient with the media's coverage of the Republican race. He's tired of reporters suggesting that the race is still open, that Rick Santorum could win, or that there may be a surprise at the convention in Tampa. So risking the ire of Newt Gingrich, Mr Douthat has declared Mitt Romney the winner.
"Either Romney will clear the 1,144 delegate threshold in May or early June, or else he’ll fall 50-100 delegates short and need to play a little inside baseball to win some of the uncommitted delegates. In either scenario, Santorum is not going to be the party’s standard-bearer, and neither is Jeb Bush or Chris Christie or Sarah Palin or Mike Huckabee or anyone else besides the man who is actually winning, however slowly and grindingly and unexcitingly, the Republican nomination for president."
I agree, and contra Mr Douthat, I think most of the media have made it quite clear that Mr Romney holds an insurmountable delegate lead. His own paper has reported that Mr Santorum and Mr Gingrich "have gradually given up on the idea of surpassing [Mr Romney] and have turned to a strategy of trying to block him from reaching the delegates he needs before the convention." The Washington Post similarly acknowledged that "it is almost mathematically impossible for any of Romney’s rivals to win the 1,144 delegates it will take to clinch the nomination." And we've said much the same thing.
So what's the point of covering this thing if, like Mr Douthat, you also find it far-fetched that the Republican Party would choose the second- or third-place finisher over the first if it comes down to a brokered convention? Well, how Mr Romney wins matters. Whether he runs across the finish line in May, or crawls across in June, or successfully negotiates an open convention, will affect his campaign going forward. The story of the primaries may no longer revolve around whether Mr Romney can be beaten, but the account of his humiliations—like failing to woo his party's base—on his way to victory is just as significant. And the more states Rick Santorum wins, the closer we are to having Mr Romney's would-be coronation degraded to a moment of bitter relief. So far from being a "predictable Republican primary", as Mr Douthat claims, the race is still quite compelling, even if we know who's going to come out on top.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/democracyinamerica/2012/03/republican-nomination-1
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