The Guardian
The GOP's new 'Barbourism'
With the US still in Iraq, Afghanistan and now Libya, the Mississippi governor's 'America first' populism may serve well
By Stewart J Lawrence
Consider this scenario for 2012: President Obama, defending his administration's intervention in three major wars, including most recently, in Libya, squares off against a Republican opponent calling for an end to "nation-building" and "reckless adventurism" in foreign policy. His GOP rival even claims that Obama's in bed with big military contractors, and suggests that the US defence budget should be drastically cut. Preposterous, you say?
Not necessarily. In fact, if Mississippi Governor Haley Barbour's brand of "America first" populism ends up carrying the day with Republicans next year, the race, in part, could well play out this way. Barbour, who may just be the last credible member of the GOP establishment with an interest in running against Obama at this point, is causing a stir in Republican circles with his critique of neoconservative dominance over his party's foreign policy. Like George Will, the patrician conservative columnist who's also called into question Obama's Libya policy, Barbour appears to be embracing old-fashioned realpolitik, the same view of the world that George W Bush embraced before 9/11 and that Obama himself championed during his 2008 campaign.
Realpolitik, ironically, has often been the target of Republicans and Democrats alike, who see it as a retreat from the "Wilsonian idealism" that has traditionally assigned America a pre-eminent role as a moral leader and at times – indeed, too often – a global policeman. "Realists" say the nation should base its foreign policy more on cold, cautious and conservative calculations of its interests, be judicious in its overseas deployments, and not try to promote "regime change" or remake the world in its own image. Naturally, this view tends to rise to the fore after an over-extended US intervention turns into a quagmire, as Vietnam did in the 1970s, and as Iraq and, more recently, Afghanistan have. Realism also plays especially well when the nation is bogged down economically, and voters start to question why the country's so heavily invested abroad, when the home front needs tending.
Barbour, who's as well-connected and as savvy as any Republican can be – and who ironically, perhaps, spent years lobbying for the very US defence contractors whose influence he's now decrying – is clearly sensing that American voters, nearly two thirds of whom now say the Afghanistan intervention was a mistake, are open to this message. But he's also banking on support from Tea Party conservatives like libertarian Ron Paul and former House speaker Dick Armey who've broken ranks with mainstream Republicans over the need for foreign intervention and massive defence spending. Since these forces are the very ones likely to dominate the 2012 nominating process – Paul was voted the most attractive conservative candidate at the bellwether Conservative Political Action Conference for the second year in a row last month – Barbour's clearly positioning himself to galvanise the GOP base, while also projecting an ability to woo independents in the general election.
Will it work? It's too early to tell, of course. Barbour is reportedly courting the endorsement of former Arkansas Governor Mike Huckabee, who's still leading in most GOP polls. But Huckabee appears to be leaning against running, in part, due to his chronic fundraising shortfalls, but also because he's reportedly grown content with his life as a genial talkshow host, and also doubts whether the GOP can actually beat Obama. If Huckabee throws his support to Barbour, that would put Iowa, an important early primary contest, in play. And for Barbour, a Huckabee endorsement would provide a critical seal of approval from social conservatives, giving him a huge legup on the remainder of the GOP field, especially if Sarah Palin, as now expected, decides not to run.
And there's more: Sally Bradshaw, who's been described by some as Florida Governor Jeb Bush's "Karl Rove" – his political mastermind – has just signed on to work for Barbour. Bradshaw advised Mitt Romney during his presidential bid in 2008, and her defection suggests just how isolated the former Massachusetts governor's current bid is becoming. In fact, Romney, who's still widely expected to win the critical New Hampshire primary – he has an overwhelming lead in polls there – only two weeks ago went to Flordia to try to open up a campaign base. Bradhsaw's defection, then, is a stinging rebuke, and it also sends a key signal to other GOP candidates: Barbour is coming on strong.
Among the broader public, Barbour's biggest negative probably isn't his thick drawl – after all, Democrats Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton have already accustomed the populace to Southerners – but the cultural legacy of being a Republican from the South. Barbour caused a huge stir last December when he said that "things in the South weren't that bad" before the civil rights era, and suggested that a local group, the Citizens Council, modelled on the more violent Ku Klux Klan, had been a "moderating" force on racial tension. Barbour later backtracked and said he had "misspoke", but to many, and not just in the African American community, it's a painful reminder of where most Southern Republicans come from historically, and how far they still are from identifying with minority aspirations. Unlike Cuban American Marco Rubio, or African American Allan West, Barbour's still a powerful symbol of his party's past – not its possible future.
Still, no Republican, least of all Barbour, expects to win the black vote, or even a significant share of it, in 2012. But independents, especially white independents?
There's the crux of the matter. If Barbour can overcome the perception that he's really just a big business lobbyist and former bigot shamelessly pandering to voter fears about the economy, and the world, he may have a real shot, especially in the South with its bevy of critical primaries that can make or break a presidential candidate. If he manages to take Iowa, the party's former national chairman who is well-liked by party moderates – and who successfully ran Gerald Ford's 1976 presidential campaign on the neo-isolationist slogan "Come Home, America" – could end up sealing the deal. Even some prominent neoconservative hawks say that Barbour may well be right on Libya. But if he wins the nomination, expect one of the most racially divisive presidential campaigns in decades.
You thought 2008 was bad? Just wait.
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/cifamerica/2011/mar/31/republicans-mississippi?INTCMP=SRCH
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